Indian Ocean Climate Initiative - Western Australia

Project 1.3: Quantification of the Limits of Seasonal Predictability of WA Rainfall and Surface Temperature (Carsten Frederiksen)

Planned outcomes:

• Develop new techniques for identifying the upper limits to the predictability of WA surface temperature and rainfall in all seasons.
• Quantify the predictive characteristics of seasonal climate and report on the efficacy of developing better seasonal or dynamical seasonal forecast schemes.

Figure 1.3.1: The estimated long-range potential predictability of WA precipitation expressed as a percentage of the total inter-annual variability of the seasonal mean precipitation due to "slow" processes (e.g. sea surface temperature forcing, slowly varying internal dynamics). The higher the percentage, the more potentially predictable the precipitation.(Each season is denoted by first letter of each month).

Figure 1.3.2: The estimated long-range potential predictability of WA’s maximum surface temperature expressed as a percentage of the total inter-annual variability of the seasonal mean temperature due to "slow" processes.

Figure 1.3.3: The estimated long-range potential predictability of WA’s minimum surface temperature expressed as a percentage of the total inter-annual variability of the seasonal mean temperature due to "slow" processes.